AAVE research calls · mrktpulsealpha

Calls › AAVE

AAVE

2 research calls since Oct 17. Latest view: Lean bearish

Edge per call (0–10)

Last close

$134.07 2026-10-29

1 week

-13.5%

1 month

-10.3%

3 months

+39.7%

1 year

-41.3%

Latest call vs BTC

+0.7% since 2026-10-27

Technical scan

Hold rank 12 of 20

Price, last 12 months daily close · markers are published calls

Current technical signals nightly scan, 2026-10-27

Crypto RSI: Deeply OversoldSupport/Resistance: Near SupportCrypto Bollinger: Near Lower Band Crypto EMA: Bearish EMAMulti-TF Momentum: Bearish ConfluenceBTC Relative Strength: Underperforming BTC

Notable moves days AAVE was among the market's biggest movers

2026-10-27 -1.8% Top decliner of the day · $132.27
2026-10-01 +7.6% Slipped in nightly scan · $171.59
2026-09-29 +13.0% Top gainer of the day · $166.69
2026-09-16 -4.0% Top decliner of the day · $117.35
2026-08-24 -7.1% Strong outperformance and uptrend · $131.28
2026-08-17 +3.4% Top gainer of the day · $88.96

What would change the latest view

Verified resumption of buybacks at ≥$500K/week sustained for a month — bearish lean is wrong; flip constructive
Fees re-accelerate (>15% 30d-over-30d) with TVL stabilizing above $17B
Aavenomics 3.0 passes with automatic revenue-funded buybacks/burn
Conversely, TVL breaking below ~$15B with Morpho within $5B of Aave would confirm thesis decay

All calls on AAVE

AAVE Lean bearish

Oct 27, 2026 · edge 5/10· evidence 7/10

Real activity, stale thesis.

The July-Sept re-rating priced in V4 adoption, GHO growth, Horizon RWA, and an active buyback. Since then fees have plateaued ($37.5M/30d, +2.4%), TVL fell ~8.4% in October, buybacks have reportedly been paused since the April rsETH incident (execution status unverified and contested by a governance report claiming the program is live) with only a proposed, unexecuted restart…

Entry $131.15 (2026-10-27) 1m vs BTC: +0.7% so far

AAVE No clear edge

Oct 17, 2026 · evidence 6/10

Real activity, but fading.

AAVE's +70%/3m move is backed by real protocol activity (V4 launch traction, +27% TVL over 90d, rising fees) and structural positives (96.5% supply circulating, buyback bid), but it is a multiple re-rating off a deeply depressed base rather than earnings growth — revenue is -67% YoY, the DAO runs a deficit, and the buyback was reduced. The last week's -8.8% with RSI 46 and…

Entry $154.66 (2026-10-17) 1m vs BTC: -13.0% so far

Results vs BTC · * still running

Published	View	Edge	Evidence	Entry	1 week	1 month	3 months
Oct 27	Lean bearish	5	7	$131.15	+0.7%*	+0.7%*	+0.7%*
Oct 17	No clear edge	—	6	$154.66	-5.9%	-13.0%*	-13.0%*

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