MCD
Lean bearish
Oct 20, 2026
· McDonald's Corporation
· edge 6/10· evidence 6/10
Momentum trap — timing trap, not value trap.
MCD's top-of-scan ranking reflects a mean-reversion bounce off the $229.30 52-week low after a -32% max drawdown, not a fundamentally supported breakout. Price strength (+3.0% 1w, RSI 69) is diverging from fundamentals: FY26/FY27 EPS estimates are being cut (20 cuts vs 1 raise on FY27 in 30 days), Q2 US comps of +0.8% missed, management delayed the 50k-store target, and Morgan…
Entry $242.67 (2026-10-19)
1m vs SPY: +2.5% so far
MCD
Lean bullish
Oct 9, 2026
· McDonald's Corporation
· edge 5/10· evidence 7/10
Cheap, but not yet cleared.
MCD has de-rated ~35pts vs SPY over one year on a stacking of moderate disappointments — Q2 US comps miss (+0.8% vs +1.06% expected), a surprise $8.5B franchisee-support commitment, and GLP-1 narrative drag — while the consolidated P&L kept growing and the forward multiple compressed to ~17x, the lowest in at least a decade. If FY2026/FY2027 EPS estimates ($12.89/$13.77)…
Entry $236.90 (2026-10-08)
1m vs SPY: +6.0% so far
MCD
Lean bullish
Oct 6, 2026
· McDonald's Corporation
· edge 5.5/10· evidence 7/10
Oversold reset — cautiously attractive.
MCD is a high-quality franchise (46% operating margins, 3.3% yield, ~$40B loyalty sales) trading at a multi-year-low multiple after an idiosyncratic 38-point underperformance vs SPY, driven by an industry-wide QSR traffic downturn plus MCD-specific execution failures and a poorly received $8.5B franchisee support commitment. Because consensus estimates have not yet been cut to…
Entry $231.89 (2026-10-02)
1m vs SPY: +7.7% so far
MCD
Lean bullish
Oct 6, 2026
· McDonald's Corporation
· edge 5/10· evidence 6/10
Oversold derating — lean bullish into Q3.
The market has converted a cyclical U.S. value-war execution problem into a structural discount. At ~17.5x forward EPS with FY26/FY27 consensus still growing 7-8%, a 46% operating margin model, and deeply oversold technicals (RSI ~17, sitting on the 52-week low), any evidence at Q3 that U.S. comps are stabilizing — or that the $8.5B franchisee package is buying back traffic…
Entry $231.89 (2026-10-02)
1m vs SPY: +7.7% so far
MCD
Lean bullish
Sep 23, 2026
· McDonald's Corporation
· edge 5.5/10· evidence 7/10
Dipped, yes. Undervalued, probably.
MCD's ~27% drawdown is a multiple-compression event (forward P/E ~18.7-19.4x vs ~24x 5-yr average) layered on top of only modest estimate cuts (FY26 EPS $12.99→$12.92; FY27 $14.19→$13.94). Fundamentals are resilient rather than pristine: revenue grew in 4 of 5 years (roughly flat in 2022) from $23.2B to $26.9B, EPS rose from $10.04 to $11.95 over 2021-2025 but with real…
Entry $238.32 (2026-09-23)
1m vs SPY: +5.3%
MCD
Lean bullish
Sep 23, 2026
· McDonald's Corporation
· edge 5/10· evidence 7/10
Washed out, not broken — lean bullish.
The 26% drawdown is MCD-specific multiple compression (99% idiosyncratic vs SPY; QSR/SBUX roughly flat-to-up over 6-12m) driven by U.S. execution misses and a back-loaded Investor Day algorithm, not by fundamental collapse — margins, EPS, and (reported) capital returns are intact or improving. At a derived ~18.5x forward with a reported ~3.2% yield (dividend raise rests on T4…
Entry $238.32 (2026-09-23)
1m vs SPY: +5.3%
MCD
Lean bullish
Sep 6, 2026
· McDonald's Corporation
· edge 5.5/10· evidence 7/10
Yes, cautiously — it's a show-me buy.
MCD is a stable-earnings, 46%-operating-margin franchise trading at a historically cheap multiple (forward P/E ~18.6-19.8x vs 3-yr avg ~25x trailing; yield ~2.9%, near historical highs) because the market no longer trusts its US traffic story after Q2 US comps of +0.8% vs Burger King's +8.5%. EPS keeps growing (~$12.88-12.93 FY26 consensus, +8%) while the multiple does all the…
Entry $255.69 (2026-09-04)
1m vs SPY: -9.2%