NFLX
Lean bullish
Oct 16, 2026
· Netflix, Inc.
· edge 5/10· evidence 7/10
De-rating overdone, but catalyst-gated.
Netflix's 2026 selloff is a growth-scare de-rating (to ~20x forward EPS from a 30-40x historical premium) driven by a Q2 revenue/ad miss, weak engagement data, and WBD-deal uncertainty — all while the P&L still compounds double digits with expanding margins. With M&A risk removed ($2.8B termination fee received, Paramount closed WBD on Oct 6) and a reported $25B buyback (~8%…
Entry $70.57 (2026-10-14)
1m vs SPY: -12.5% so far
NFLX
Lean bullish
Oct 14, 2026
· Netflix, Inc.
· edge 6/10· evidence 8/10
Yes — derated, not broken.
The market has repriced NFLX from a high-growth compounder to a mid-teens-revenue, margin-expanding cash machine — but at ~19-20x forward EPS and a 4.3% FCF yield, the valuation now assumes less growth than management's own guidance implies. If FY26 revenue of $51.0-51.4B and FY27 estimates hold even roughly, the ~$27B buyback authorization plus record Q2 repurchase pace…
Entry $70.46 (2026-10-13)
1m vs SPY: -11.3% so far
NFLX
Neutral
Oct 10, 2026
· Netflix, Inc.
· evidence 7/10
Fairly valued after the reset.
Netflix is transitioning from a growth-multiple stock to a capital-return/margin story. Core financials are healthy (33.4% Q2 operating margin, ~$12.5B guided 2026 FCF, ~$5.3B net debt = <0.5x one year's FCF), but the drivers of the 2024-25 growth surge appear lapped: engagement grew only ~2% in H1 2026, guided revenue growth has stepped down from ~16% to 13-14%, and the ad…
Entry $70.30 (2026-10-09)
1m vs SPY: -11.0% so far
NFLX
Lean bullish
Oct 7, 2026
· Netflix, Inc.
· edge 6/10· evidence 8/10
Lean bullish — a reset, not a break.
Netflix's 10-for-1 split-adjusted decline from ~$1,150 to ~$687 (pre-split equivalent) reflects the market repricing a 16%-grower as an 11-13% grower while management retreated from disclosure (subscriber counts ended, viewing data going annual). But the underlying P&L kept compounding: FY26 guide of $51.0-51.4B revenue (+13-14%), 31.5% operating margin, ~$12.5B FCF, and ads…
Entry $68.69 (2026-10-06)
1m vs SPY: -8.9% so far
NFLX
Lean bullish
Oct 7, 2026
· Netflix, Inc.
· edge 5/10· evidence 7/10
Lean bullish into Oct 20.
NFLX has been de-rated ~45% on an engagement-share narrative (Nielsen: US TV-time share 7.8% vs 8.8% a year ago, YouTube at a record 14.2%) while its absolute engagement, revenue growth, margins, ads ramp, and buybacks all remain on guided track. The selloff priced the income statement as if the engagement story were already broken; the company's own SEC-filed disclosure (97B+…
Entry $68.69 (2026-10-06)
1m vs SPY: -8.9% so far